Market Demand

The 30% That Never Was: How Flex’s Most Famous Number Drifted

CoworkingConsulting.com ResearchOctober 19, 2026 · 4 min read

30% is the figure quoted for flex by 2030; flex is 2.3% of the U.S. office inventory Yardi tracks, 2026.

In this article

The number in the pitch deck
From a portfolio to the whole market
Where flex actually sits
Why it matters for an owner

The number in the pitch deck

Sit in enough landlord meetings and you will hear it: flexible space will be 30% of the office market by 2030. It appears in operator pitch decks, broker presentations and press releases. It is offered as the reason a floor should become flex now, before the market catches up.

With 2030 a little over three years away, the number is worth following back to where it came from. It turns out to be several different claims that happen to share one figure. Each retelling kept the 30% and changed what it was a percentage of.

From a portfolio to the whole market

2016
JLL, Workspace, Reworked 1
“Up to 30 percent of corporate real estate portfolios will comprise flexible space by 2030.”
The subject is the occupier: how a company might split its own real estate between long-term leases and flexible space.
2017
JLL, Bracing for the Flexible Space Revolution 2
Flex “could rise to 30 percent by 2030,” from less than 5% of office inventory.
The subject moves to the market, and the footnote counts “flexible workspace and shared amenity spaces,” with independent operators at about 2% of U.S. inventory.
Nov 2017
Conference recap 3
“30% of office space will be flexible by 2030.”
Within months, the portfolio framing is gone.
2018
JLL Research, Melbourne 4
Flexible space “would equal to 30% of total office stock in some markets.”
A qualifier, “in some markets,” that later retellings dropped.
2019
MBA Newslink 5
“30 percent of the U.S. office market will be flexible space by 2030.”
The denominator is now the whole national market.
2019
CBRE 6 7
Three scenarios for 2030: 6.5%, 13.3% and 22.2% of office supply.
The highest scenario sits well below 30%, from a starting point of just under 2%.
2026
JLL, Global Workspace Association keynote 8
The 30% “was a demand number, not a forecast of how much flex space would be built.”
As reported: occupiers were asked how they wanted their portfolios split, and they said 30% flex.
2026
International Workplace Group 9
“30% of all commercial real estate will be flexible workspace by 2030.”
The denominator grows past office to every commercial property type.

There is simply not enough available office space to support this supply without even more drastic changes in tenant behavior.
Julie Whelan, CBRE, on the 30% figure, September 2019 6

Where flex actually sits

Yardi puts flexible space at about 2.3% of the U.S. office inventory it tracks, which excludes landlord-run spec suites.8 That is close to the roughly 2% JLL counted for independent operators in 2017, and the just under 2% CBRE measured in 2019.2 7 Some markets run higher: the same article cites London at about 10%. Even there, the number sits at a third of the famous figure.

None of this means flex is failing. It means the 30% did not start as a measure of market supply. A company telling a broker it would like 30% of its own space to be flexible is a real and useful signal about occupier demand. It is a different statement from 30% of all office buildings becoming flex.

Why it matters for an owner

The drift is not just an industry curiosity. A national share, inflated or not, says nothing about a specific building. Underwriting a floor on the belief that the market is heading toward 30% puts the decision on a number that was measuring something else.

The questions that decide a building are local and checkable:

Demand around the building. Who works within the trade area, which industries, and how many small and mid-size firms need flexible terms.
Competing supply and its pricing. What operators nearby actually charge for an office, a desk and a meeting room, and how full they are.
How much flex the building can carry. JLL’s April 2026 analysis of sales found that buildings above about 17% flex historically saw value impairment, and buildings between 15% and 20% traded roughly in line with peers.10 CBRE’s 2020 analysis put the line higher, finding little to no loss in value below 30%.11 The two broker studies disagree, which is itself the point: the safe share is a question for the specific asset and its lender, not a national headline.

Flex can be a strong use for the right floor. The case for it is built from the building outward, not from a market share down.

Frequently asked questions

Where did the 30% flex by 2030 figure come from?

It traces to JLL research in 2016, which forecast that up to 30% of corporate real estate portfolios could be flexible by 2030. It was a statement about how companies would hold their own space, not about how much of the office market would become flex.

How much of the U.S. office market is flexible space today?

Yardi puts flex at about 2.3% of the U.S. office inventory it tracks, which excludes landlord-run spec suites. That is close to the roughly 2% JLL itself counted for independent operators in 2017. Definitions vary, so any share depends on what is counted as flex.

Did any major broker forecast less than 30%?

Yes. In 2019 CBRE published three scenarios for 2030 at 6.5%, 13.3% and 22.2% of office space, all below 30%.

What should an owner use instead of a national share?

The demand within the building's own trade area, the realistic pricing of competing operators, and the share of the building flex can occupy before value is affected. JLL's April 2026 sale data shows buildings above about 17% flex historically saw value impairment, while CBRE's 2020 analysis put the line at 30%.